英语翻译指数平滑法模型的建立主要取决于历史数据的各次平滑值,而平滑值的变化制约于平滑系数A的大小,因此平滑系数A的取值很

英语翻译
指数平滑法模型的建立主要取决于历史数据的各次平滑值,而平滑值的变化制约于平滑系数A的大小,因此平滑系数A的取值很大程度上决定了预测的准确度.确定A的方法通常采用经验估计法或优选法.用优选法选择A需要确定目标函数,在过去的工作中人们在确定目标函数时对不同时间的模型误差同等对待.但实际上近年数据误差比远年数据误差对将来的预测的精度影响更大,因此在优选A时对预测误差采用一视同仁的方式是不适合的.本文采用厚近薄远原则确定目标函数,通过试验方法研究了用厚近薄远原则确定目标函数优选A对预测结果所造成的影响,直观证明了采用厚近薄远原则优选A的优越性,并对厚近薄远的程度问题进行了进一步的探讨.
hexiaodong520 1年前 已收到1个回答 举报

lidun2008 幼苗

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Exponential smoothing model depends mainly on the historical data value, and every smooth smooth the change of the value which restrict the size of A sliding coefficient, so smooth coefficient values of A largely determine the forecast accuracy. A method to determine the estimate method usually experience or worthy. Choose A need to determine with worthy goal function, and in the past work at targeting people of different time when A function of the model error treated equally. But in fact in recent years than data error in data error for the future is the prediction accuracy of more influence on choice, so when the prediction error to A way of using alike were not suitable. In this article, the thick BoYuan principles nearly target function, through the test method is used to study the thick nearly BoYuan principles objective function optimization A the forecast results the impact of the thick, intuitive proof nearly BoYuan principle, the superiority of A selection of thick the extent of the BoYuan near the further discussion.
大概是这样的吧,希望能帮到你,(*^__^*) 嘻嘻……

1年前

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